Altan Nar Gold Silver Project

An independent illustrative economic analysis based on the September 2026 NI 43-101 Technical Report and Stormlands Mining’s economic models.

Altan Nar Gold-Silver-Polymetallic Project

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1. Executive Summary

Stormlands Mining has completed an independent, illustrative economic assessment of the Altan Nar Gold-Silver-Polymetallic Project in southwestern Mongolia, using Mineral Resource data published in the September 2026 NI 43-101 Technical Report prepared by SLR Consulting LLC.

The technical report establishes an updated Mineral Resource but does not contain a project-level Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA), Mineral Reserve estimate or formal economic analysis. Stormlands has therefore applied its proprietary economic modelling framework to examine the potential financial characteristics of the project before a formal economic study has been completed.

The analysis considers two commodity-price scenarios: the prices applied in the 2026 technical report’s resource estimate and a second scenario using average August 2026 commodity prices supplied to the Stormlands model.

Using the 6.9 million tonne Indicated Mineral Resource, the original model produces a post-tax Project Net Present Value at an 8% discount rate of US$322.4 million, a Project Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 62.13%, and a modelled mine life of 11 years.

Under the August 2026 commodity-price scenario, Project NPV increases to US$408.5 million, while IRR rises to 75.23%. The approximately 26.7% increase in NPV is achieved without changing the modelled mine life, production volume, operating expenditure or capital expenditure.

Additional sensitivity analysis identifies gold price as the dominant driver of project value. In both commodity-price scenarios, NPV remains positive across all 25 combinations of gold price and operating costs tested within a ±20% range.

The results illustrate potentially attractive project economics, substantial leverage to gold prices and opportunities for future resource expansion and development optimisation.

Key Highlights

 

Metric Technical Report Price Scenario August 2026 Price Scenario
Post-tax Project NPV US$322.4m US$408.5m
Project IRR 62.13% 75.23%
Life-of-mine revenue US$1.275bn US$1.478bn
Life-of-mine EBITDA US$924.4m US$1.116bn
Initial CAPEX US$100.0m US$100.0m
Modelled mine life 11.08 years 11.08 years
Cash operating margin 78.51% 81.46%
Lowest gold/OPEX heatmap NPV US$205m US$279m
Highest gold/OPEX heatmap NPV US$440m US$537m

All financial figures are illustrative Stormlands model outputs, expressed in US dollars.

2. Project Overview

The Altan Nar Gold-Silver-Polymetallic Project is located in Bayankhongor Province, southwestern Mongolia, approximately 980 km southwest of Ulaanbaatar and 20 km north-northwest of the operating Bayan Khundii gold mine.

The project forms part of the Khundii Minerals District, an emerging mineral development area hosting several gold and polymetallic deposits and prospects.

Altan Nar comprises a single mining licence, MV-021547, covering approximately 4,668.64 hectares. The licence is held by Erdene Mongol LLC, a joint venture owned equally by Erdene Resource Development Corporation and Mongolian Mining Corporation.

The project is undeveloped and has no history of commercial mineral production.

Exploration undertaken since 2010 has identified a structurally controlled gold-silver-lead-zinc mineralised system extending across several kilometres. The principal deposits are the Discovery Zone and Union North, with additional prospects including Maggie, Union South, Riverside, Union East, Central Valley and Northfield.

The mineralisation is interpreted as an intermediate-sulphidation epithermal system, hosted predominantly within andesitic volcanic rocks. Gold, silver, lead and zinc occur within steeply dipping quartz veins, quartz-carbonate-sulphide veins, hydrothermal breccias and associated alteration zones.

Systematic exploration has included geological mapping, geochemical sampling, geophysical surveys, trenching and diamond drilling.

By the date of the 2026 technical report, the project database comprised 130 diamond drill holes totalling 20,233 metres, together with 42 trenches totalling 3,151 metres.

The updated Mineral Resource estimate incorporates the available drilling and geological information, with the majority of the resource concentrated in the Discovery Zone and Union North areas.

Existing Infrastructure

An important characteristic of Altan Nar is its proximity to the Bayan Khundii gold mine, which entered commercial production in 2025.

Bayan Khundii has established infrastructure including access roads, accommodation, power, water supply, communications, a carbon-in-pulp processing plant and a private airstrip.

This provides potential opportunities for shared logistics, operational support and infrastructure development.

However, the suitability of existing processing facilities for Altan Nar material has not been demonstrated. The project’s polymetallic mineralisation and variable metallurgical characteristics may require a separate processing configuration.

The potential benefits of infrastructure sharing therefore remain opportunities for further investigation rather than confirmed economic advantages.

2. Project Overview

Mining at Copalquin has a long history. Modern exploration accelerated after Mithril acquired Sun Minerals in 2020. Between 2020 and the June 2026 resource effective date, Mithril completed 320 diamond drill holes totalling approximately 83,764 metres. Exploration has also included extensive surface and underground sampling, geological mapping, LiDAR surveys, aerial magnetics, petrography, fluid-inclusion work and geochronology.

Although drilling has been concentrated on Target 1, the property contains numerous historic mines, prospects and mineralised structures distributed across the wider district.

That distinction is important when considering the Stormlands model: the economic analysis is based on only a relatively small part of the broader Copalquin property.

3. Stormlands Economic Model: Methodology and Assumptions

Stormlands developed its illustrative model using the Mineral Resource data and technical assumptions available in the 2026 NI 43-101 report, together with independent assumptions regarding mine production, expenditure, royalties, taxation and cash-flow timing.

The model provides preliminary estimates of potential revenue, operating margins, capital requirements, cash flows, NPV and IRR.

Two commodity-price scenarios were evaluated while maintaining the same underlying physical production assumptions.

Model Parameters

Parameter Model Assumption
Mineral Resource modelled Indicated
Starting resource tonnage 6.900 Mt
Modelled ore output 6.555 Mt
Resource-to-ore-output factor Approximately 95%
Modelled mine life 11.08 years
Ore production in full operating years Approximately 591,818 t/year
Unit operating cost US$41.80/t
Life-of-mine OPEX US$274.02m
Initial CAPEX US$100.00m
Sustaining CAPEX Approximately US$33.02m
Life-of-mine CAPEX US$133.02m
Discount rate 8%

The model generates approximately 6.555 Mt of ore output from the 6.9 Mt Indicated Resource, distributed over an 11.08-year operating period.

Production is relatively uniform during full operating years, followed by a final partial year.

This provides a consistent basis for comparing the two commodity-price scenarios, although a future engineered mine plan could establish materially different annual production volumes, head grades, mining losses, dilution and ore sequencing.

The model applies an initial capital requirement of US$100 million and additional sustaining expenditure over the mine life.

These are illustrative cost assumptions. The technical report does not contain a completed capital-cost estimate or detailed operating-cost study for a proposed Altan Nar mining operation.

Consequently, the financial outputs should be understood as conditional results of the stated model rather than independently verified development economics.

4. Base-Case Economic Analysis: Technical Report Commodity Prices

The first Stormlands scenario applies the commodity prices used in the 2026 technical report’s Mineral Resource calculations.

These comprise US$3,900/oz gold, US$40/oz silver, US$3,000/t zinc and US$2,000/t lead.

Under these assumptions, the model generates life-of-mine revenue of approximately US$1.275 billion.

After operating expenditure and royalties, life-of-mine EBITDA is approximately US$924.4 million.

The post-tax Project NPV is US$322.4 million, with a Project IRR of 62.13%.

Base-Case Financial Results

Financial Metric Stormlands Model
Life-of-mine revenue US$1,274.94m
Life-of-mine OPEX US$274.02m
Commercial royalties US$12.75m
Government royalties US$63.75m
EBITDA US$924.42m
Corporate income tax US$198.35m
Post-tax Project FCFF US$593.05m
Post-tax Project NPV US$322.40m
Project IRR 62.13%

Life-of-mine amounts are undiscounted unless identified as NPV. FCFF means Free Cash Flow to the Firm. Post-tax Project FCFF is the model’s aggregate cash flow after its initial investment.

Operating Margins

The base model generates revenue of approximately US$194.50 per tonne of modelled ore output against operating expenditure of US$41.80/t.

This produces a cash operating margin of US$152.70/t, equivalent to 78.51% of revenue before royalties, taxation and capital expenditure.

After commercial and government royalties, the model’s life-of-mine EBITDA margin is approximately 72.51%.

Revenue is therefore approximately 4.65 times operating expenditure.

This substantial difference between modelled revenue and operating costs is one of the principal contributors to the project’s positive economic results.

It also indicates potential capacity to absorb increases in unit operating costs or decreases in commodity prices before modelled operating margins are eliminated.

However, this margin depends on the assumed processing, recovery, payable-metal and expenditure parameters being achievable.

Capital Efficiency

The model’s US$322.4 million Project NPV represents approximately 3.22 times assumed initial capital expenditure of US$100 million.

During full production years, modelled post-tax project free cash flow is approximately US$62.4 million annually.

On a simple undiscounted operating basis, this implies an initial-capital payback period of approximately 1.6 production years, or one year and seven months.

The calculation excludes any pre-production construction and development period and is not a formal PEA payback estimate.

The relationship between assumed initial investment and recurring cash flow contributes to the model’s relatively high Project IRR.

The findings illustrate potential capital efficiency, although they remain particularly sensitive to whether the capital and operating cost assumptions can be supported by future engineering studies.

5. Revenue Composition: Gold Dominates Project Economics

Although Altan Nar contains four potentially valuable metals, Stormlands’ Revenue Report indicates that the project’s financial performance is predominantly driven by gold.

Base-Case Revenue by Commodity

Commodity Life-of-Mine Revenue Share
Gold US$1,093.69m 85.78%
Silver US$78.70m 6.17%
Zinc US$57.75m 4.53%
Lead US$44.79m 3.51%
Total US$1,274.94m 100%

Gold accounts for approximately 85.8% of total revenue, with silver contributing a further 6.2%.

Together, the two precious metals generate approximately 92% of modelled life-of-mine revenue.

Zinc and lead provide additional revenue contributions but are considerably less significant to the overall financial result.

This concentration has important implications for project valuation.

Gold price and recoverable gold production are expected to have the greatest influence on project value, while changes in zinc and lead prices are unlikely to have a comparable effect.

The polymetallic composition may nevertheless provide opportunities to generate supplementary revenue, provided saleable products can be produced economically.

The Stormlands Revenue Report models payable gold, silver, zinc and lead through a concentrate-based commercial structure.

The technical report, however, identifies conventional cyanidation recovering gold and silver as its preliminary base-case processing approach, because flotation results have been less favourable for certain mineralisation types.

Accordingly, the zinc and lead revenue included in the Stormlands model represents an illustrative commercial assumption rather than a demonstrated operating outcome.

The financial implications of recovering base metals, compared with a simpler precious-metals-focused processing route, require further metallurgical and economic evaluation.

6. Base-Case Sensitivity Analysis

Stormlands’ sensitivity analysis evaluates the impact of ±10% changes in eight key economic assumptions on the US$322.4 million base-case Project NPV.

Each variable is assessed individually while other assumptions are held constant, with an additional scenario examining simultaneous changes in all commodity prices.

Sensitivity Results

Variable Lower NPV Higher NPV
All commodity prices US$268m US$376m
Gold price US$276m US$369m
Discount rate US$304m US$342m
Operating costs US$310m US$335m
Capital costs US$315m US$330m
Silver price US$319m US$326m
Zinc price US$320m US$325m
Lead price US$321m US$324m

 

Gold Price Is the Principal Driver of Value

Gold price produces by far the largest NPV variation among the individual commodity prices tested.

A 10% reduction in gold price lowers NPV from US$322.4 million to approximately US$276 million, while a 10% increase raises it to approximately US$369 million.

The total NPV variation between these endpoints is approximately US$93 million.

By comparison, a ±10% change in silver price generates an NPV range of approximately US$7 million, while the corresponding ranges for zinc and lead are approximately US$5 million and US$3 million respectively.

This confirms that the project’s valuation sensitivity broadly reflects its revenue composition.

Gold accounts for approximately 86% of the total NPV variation associated with a simultaneous ±10% change in all four commodity prices.

The project’s polymetallic resource therefore does not imply equivalent economic exposure to each metal.

Discount Rate and Operating Costs

Discount rate is the second-most influential individually tested factor, producing an NPV range of approximately US$304 million to US$342 million.

This reflects the importance of future cash-flow timing in an operation extending beyond 11 years.

A ±10% change in operating costs produces an NPV range of approximately US$25 million, while the corresponding change in capital costs produces a range of approximately US$15 million.

The results indicate that project value is considerably more sensitive to gold-price movements than to equivalent percentage movements in operating or capital expenditure within the tested ranges.

All sensitivity outcomes retain positive NPV.

These findings demonstrate the relative influence of the selected variables but do not establish that the underlying cost and recovery assumptions are achievable.

7. Commodity Price and Operating Cost Heatmaps

Stormlands completed four additional heatmaps examining simultaneous variations in operating costs and the individual prices of gold, silver, zinc and lead.

Each heatmap tests 25 combinations, with the relevant commodity price and operating costs ranging from 80% to 120% of their base assumptions.

The combined analyses therefore comprise 100 tested combinations.

All 100 scenarios retain positive project NPV.

Gold Price and Operating Costs

The gold-price heatmap produces the widest range of modelled valuations.

At the most adverse tested combination, gold price decreases by 20% to US$3,120/oz while operating costs increase by 20% to US$50.16/t.

Under this scenario, Project NPV declines from US$322.4 million to approximately US$205 million.

At the most favourable tested combination, gold price increases by 20% to US$4,680/oz while operating costs decrease by 20% to US$33.44/t.

Project NPV increases to approximately US$440 million.

The resulting US$235 million difference between the two extremes demonstrates substantial leverage to gold prices and operating costs.

Importantly, the model remains NPV-positive even under the combined adverse scenario.

This suggests that the model’s positive economic results are not confined to a single combination of gold price and operating expenditure.

However, the heatmap holds other important variables unchanged, including metallurgical recovery, production, capital expenditure and mine sequencing.

The positive outcomes therefore establish resilience within the tested model parameters rather than confirmed resilience of a future operating mine.

Silver, Zinc and Lead Heatmaps

The other three commodity-price heatmaps produce considerably narrower valuation ranges.

Heatmap Lowest NPV Highest NPV
Gold price / OPEX US$205m US$440m
Silver price / OPEX US$291m US$354m
Zinc price / OPEX US$293m US$352m
Lead price / OPEX US$294m US$351m

 

At base operating costs, a 20% reduction in gold price lowers NPV by approximately US$92 million.

Equivalent reductions in silver, zinc and lead prices lower NPV by approximately US$6 million, US$4 million and US$3 million respectively.

The results reinforce the dominant role of gold in determining project value.

For silver, zinc and lead, changes in operating costs account for a large share of the variation observed in their respective heatmaps.

The potential economic contribution from these metals is therefore supplementary rather than fundamental to the model’s overall valuation.

The Relationship Between Gold Prices and Operating Costs

A notable finding is that reducing operating costs cannot necessarily compensate for a decline in gold price.

In the original model, a 10% reduction in gold price combined with a 20% decrease in operating costs produces an NPV of approximately US$301 million, below the US$322.4 million base case.

Conversely, a 10% increase in gold price more than offsets a 20% increase in operating costs, leaving NPV at approximately US$344 million.

This illustrates the relative importance of gold-price exposure compared with operating-cost changes.

Within the tested ranges, favourable commodity-price realisations have a greater effect on project valuation than incremental operating-cost improvements.

8. Updated Commodity Price Scenario: August 2026

Stormlands developed a second economic model using the average August 2026 commodity prices provided for gold, silver, zinc and lead.

All principal physical production and expenditure assumptions were held constant to allow comparison with the original technical-report-price scenario.

Commodity Price Assumptions

Commodity Original Scenario August 2026 Scenario Change
Gold (US$/oz) $3,900.00 $4,398.80 +12.8%
Silver (US$/oz) $40.00 $65.40 +63.5%
Zinc (US$/t) $3,000.00 $3,875.13 +29.2%
Lead (US$/t) $2,000.00 $1,855.05 −7.2%

The new scenario applies higher assumed prices for gold, silver and zinc, while lead price declines.

Silver experiences the largest percentage increase, followed by zinc and gold.

The updated prices do not represent a uniform escalation across all commodities, making the scenario particularly useful for identifying the individual contributions of different metals to project value.

Updated Economic Results

Under the August 2026 commodity-price assumptions, modelled life-of-mine revenue increases from US$1.275 billion to approximately US$1.478 billion.

Operating expenditure remains US$274.0 million, while EBITDA increases to approximately US$1.116 billion.

Post-tax Project NPV increases to US$408.5 million, and Project IRR rises to 75.23%.

Financial Metric Original Scenario August 2026 Scenario
LOM revenue US$1,274.9m US$1,478.4m
LOM OPEX US$274.0m US$274.0m
LOM EBITDA US$924.4m US$1,115.7m
EBITDA margin 72.51% 75.46%
LOM corporate income tax US$198.4m US$245.8m
Post-tax Project FCFF US$593.1m US$736.8m
Project NPV US$322.4m US$408.5m
Project IRR 62.13% 75.23%

Revenue Growth Translates Into Greater NPV Growth

Life-of-mine revenue increases by approximately US$203.5 million, or 16.0%.

However, EBITDA increases by 20.7%, post-tax free cash flow increases by 24.2%, and Project NPV increases by 26.7%.

The higher percentage growth in NPV demonstrates the model’s operating and valuation leverage to commodity prices.

Because production volumes, operating costs and capital expenditure remain unchanged, a substantial proportion of the additional revenue flows through to earnings and post-tax cash flow.

The US$86.1 million increase in NPV arises entirely from the revised commodity-price assumptions and the associated changes in royalties, taxation and cash flow.

The results demonstrate that, under a fixed production and cost structure, relatively moderate increases in overall realised commodity revenue can generate proportionately larger improvements in project value.

This does not reflect a change in the mine’s physical productivity or operating efficiency. It is a consequence of the model’s financial structure and the higher commodity-price assumptions.

9. Revenue Composition Under Updated Prices

The updated Revenue Report identifies how each commodity contributes to the increase in life-of-mine revenue.

Commodity Original Revenue Updated Revenue Change
Gold US$1,093.7m US$1,233.6m +US$139.9m
Silver US$78.7m US$128.7m +US$50.0m
Zinc US$57.8m US$74.6m +US$16.8m
Lead US$44.8m US$41.5m −US$3.2m
Total US$1,274.9m US$1,478.4m +US$203.5m

Gold accounts for approximately 68.8% of the overall revenue increase.

Silver contributes approximately 24.6%, while zinc contributes 8.3%. The decline in lead price partially offsets these gains.

Silver Becomes a More Significant Contributor

Although gold remains the dominant revenue source, the revised model identifies a meaningful increase in silver’s contribution.

Silver revenue rises from US$78.7 million to US$128.7 million, an increase of approximately US$50 million.

This reflects the 63.5% increase in the assumed silver price.

Silver’s share of total modelled revenue increases from approximately 6.2% to 8.7%.

Gold’s share declines slightly from 85.8% to 83.4%, despite the increase in absolute gold revenue.

Together, gold and silver account for approximately 92.1% of revenue under the updated assumptions.

The findings suggest that Altan Nar’s economic exposure is increasingly influenced by both precious metals under higher silver prices, although gold remains overwhelmingly dominant.

The contribution of zinc and lead is smaller. Their inclusion provides a potential additional revenue stream, but the commercial viability of base-metal recovery remains dependent on metallurgical performance, concentrate quality, payability and processing costs.

10. Higher Prices Improve Margins and Capital Returns

The updated commodity-price scenario also materially improves the model’s unit economics.

Revenue per tonne of modelled ore output increases from US$194.50 to US$225.54.

Operating expenditure remains US$41.80/t.

The resulting cash operating margin increases from US$152.70/t to US$183.73/t, an improvement of approximately US$31.03/t.

The cash operating margin percentage increases from 78.51% to 81.46%.

At the higher commodity prices, the model generates approximately US$5.40 in revenue for every US$1 of operating expenditure, compared with US$4.65 in the original scenario.

This increases the modelled capacity to absorb adverse operating-cost movements, although the result remains conditional on the underlying production and revenue assumptions.

Capital Efficiency and Payback

With initial CAPEX unchanged at US$100 million, the increase in NPV improves the ratio of discounted project value to initial capital expenditure from 3.22 times to 4.08 times.

Annual post-tax project cash flow during full production years increases from approximately US$62.4 million to US$75.4 million.

The implied simple operating payback period therefore decreases from approximately 1.60 years to 1.33 years.

This represents an improvement of approximately three months.

The revised Project IRR of 75.23%, compared with 62.13% in the original scenario, further reflects the effect of higher annual cash flow relative to the unchanged initial investment.

These results indicate potentially strong capital efficiency under the modelled assumptions, but the initial capital requirement has not been established through engineering studies. The implied payback excludes the pre-production period.

11. Updated Sensitivity Analysis

A further sensitivity analysis was completed around the August 2026 commodity-price assumptions.

The updated base-case NPV is US$408.5 million.

As with the original model, eight economic drivers are varied by ±10%.

Updated Sensitivity Results

Variable Lower NPV Higher NPV
All commodity prices US$346m US$471m
Gold price US$356m US$461m
Discount rate US$387m US$432m
Operating costs US$396m US$421m
Capital costs US$401m US$416m
Silver price US$403m US$414m
Zinc price US$405m US$412m
Lead price US$407m US$410m

Rounded results from the updated Stormlands sensitivity analysis.

Gold Remains the Dominant Valuation Driver

Gold price again produces the largest individual impact on NPV.

A 10% decline in gold price lowers NPV to approximately US$356 million, while a 10% increase raises it to approximately US$461 million.

The resulting US$105 million range is greater than the US$93 million range in the original scenario.

This reflects the higher gold-price assumption and the increased dollar value of an equivalent percentage movement.

The absolute sensitivity of project valuation to gold price therefore increases under the updated model.

Silver Price Sensitivity Also Increases

The total NPV range associated with ±10% silver-price movements increases from approximately US$7 million in the original model to US$11 million under the updated prices.

Zinc-price sensitivity also rises modestly, while lead-price sensitivity remains comparatively small.

This is consistent with the updated revenue composition, in which silver makes a greater contribution to project revenue.

Cost Sensitivities Remain Broadly Unchanged

A ±10% change in operating costs produces an NPV range of approximately US$25 million, while the corresponding capital-cost sensitivity produces a range of approximately US$15 million.

These results are broadly unchanged from the original sensitivity analysis because the underlying operating and capital expenditure assumptions have not changed.

Discount-rate sensitivity increases from approximately US$38 million to US$45 million, reflecting the higher value of projected future cash flows.

The overall results demonstrate that gold price remains the primary economic driver, while discount rate and operating expenditure are secondary sources of valuation sensitivity within the tested ranges.

12. Updated Gold Price and Operating Cost Heatmap

Stormlands also completed an updated gold-price/OPEX heatmap centred on the August 2026 commodity-price assumptions.

The analysis varies gold price and operating costs independently from 80% to 120% of their updated base values, generating 25 scenarios.

All 25 scenarios retain positive NPV.

Updated Heatmap Results

Scenario Project NPV
Gold −20%, OPEX +20% US$279m
Gold −20%, base OPEX US$304m
Updated base case US$408.5m
Gold +20%, base OPEX US$513m
Gold +20%, OPEX −20% US$537m

At the most adverse tested combination, gold price declines by 20% to US$3,519.04/oz while operating costs increase by 20% to US$50.16/t.

Project NPV declines from US$408.5 million to approximately US$279 million, a reduction of approximately 31.7%.

At the most favourable tested combination, gold price rises to US$5,278.56/oz while operating costs fall to US$33.44/t.

NPV increases to approximately US$537 million.

The total valuation range between these extremes is approximately US$258 million.

Comparison with the Original Heatmap

Metric Original Prices August 2026 Prices
Base NPV US$322.4m US$408.5m
Lowest heatmap NPV US$205m US$279m
Highest heatmap NPV US$440m US$537m
Total NPV range US$235m US$258m

The updated model generates higher NPV across every corresponding gold-price and operating-cost percentage combination.

The minimum tested NPV increases from US$205 million to US$279 million, while the maximum increases from US$440 million to US$537 million.

However, the overall range of outcomes also widens, from approximately US$235 million to US$258 million.

This illustrates both the higher central valuation and the greater absolute exposure to gold-price movements under the revised assumptions.

The most adverse updated scenario retains an NPV equivalent to approximately 68% of the updated base case.

This provides further evidence that the modelled project value remains positive under the specific adverse price and operating-cost combinations tested.

Nevertheless, the heatmap does not incorporate simultaneous changes in all commodity prices, metallurgical recovery, capital expenditure or mine production.

The outcomes should therefore not be interpreted as demonstrating project viability under all adverse operating conditions.

13. Metallurgical Recovery: A Key Uncertainty

Although the sensitivity and heatmap analyses identify gold price as the dominant tested economic variable, the technical report highlights another potentially important determinant of project value: metallurgical recovery.

Gold recovery at Altan Nar varies significantly with the arsenic content of mineralised material.

The 2026 technical report summarises average recovery results from historical cyanidation testwork.

Arsenic Content Average Gold Recovery
Below 0.16% 88%
Between 0.16% and 1% 48%
Above 1% 29%

Source: Technical Report, Table 13-13, p.87. Results are testwork averages and do not represent a final mine-wide recovery estimate.

The difference is substantial.

Material containing less than 0.16% arsenic has demonstrated much higher average gold recovery than material containing elevated arsenic.

The report identifies high-arsenic mineralisation, defined as material containing more than 1% arsenic, as approximately 11% of deposit tonnage.

It proposes selectively excluding this material from processing because of its relatively poor recovery performance.

The 2026 metallurgical programme also returned gold recoveries of approximately 87–90% from a low-arsenic Discovery Zone composite, but silver recoveries were lower, at approximately 53–56%.

These findings indicate that the distribution of mineralisation types could materially affect the quantity and value of economically recoverable metal.

The Stormlands sensitivity analysis does not independently vary metallurgical recovery or test the economic effects of selectively excluding high-arsenic ore.

Consequently, the positive NPV outcomes in the sensitivity and heatmap analyses remain conditional on the model’s recovery and payable-metal assumptions.

A future economic study would need to establish representative metallurgical recoveries, quantify the effects of arsenic distribution, and evaluate appropriate processing strategies.

This may be among the most consequential technical issues for Altan Nar’s future development.

14. What the Analysis Demonstrates

The Altan Nar case study provides an example of applying preliminary economic modelling to a mineral project before a current project-level PEA is available.

The original model establishes a reference economic scenario using commodity prices from the NI 43-101 resource estimate.

The sensitivity analysis and commodity-price heatmaps then examine how valuation changes under different price, cost and discount-rate assumptions.

The updated August 2026 model demonstrates how the project valuation responds to a different commodity-price environment while holding physical production and costs constant.

Finally, the updated sensitivity analysis and heatmap examine the degree of valuation exposure around those higher commodity-price assumptions.

Taken together, the analyses provide four principal findings.

First, positive modelled economics are generated from the Indicated Resource alone. The original scenario reports Project NPV of US$322.4 million and Project IRR of 62.13%, excluding the additional 8.1 Mt Inferred Resource.

Second, gold is the predominant source of project value. Although the deposit contains gold, silver, zinc and lead, gold accounts for approximately 86% of original modelled revenue and produces substantially greater NPV sensitivity than the other commodities.

Third, the model demonstrates considerable leverage to commodity prices. Updating commodity-price assumptions increases revenue by approximately 16.0%, EBITDA by 20.7% and NPV by 26.7%, without changes to modelled production or expenditure.

Fourth, NPV remains positive across all tested commodity-price/OPEX heatmap scenarios. Under the original prices, the lowest tested NPV is US$205 million. Under August 2026 prices, the lowest tested NPV is US$279 million.

These results illustrate potential project value and help identify the assumptions that most influence that value.

They do not resolve the technical uncertainties that a formal economic study must address.

In particular, metallurgical recovery, the choice of processing route, the mineable inventory, engineered capital and operating costs, and the timing of production remain central to determining whether a future development scenario is economically viable.

15. Conclusion

Stormlands’ illustrative economic analysis of the Altan Nar Gold-Silver-Polymetallic Project indicates potentially attractive project economics based on the June 2026 Indicated Mineral Resource.

At the commodity prices applied in the technical report, the model produces a post-tax Project NPV of approximately US$322.4 million, a Project IRR of 62.13%, and life-of-mine revenue of US$1.275 billion over 11.08 years.

Under the August 2026 commodity-price scenario, Project NPV rises to approximately US$408.5 million and IRR increases to 75.23%.

The US$86.1 million increase in NPV, achieved without changing production volumes, operating costs or capital expenditure, demonstrates the model’s substantial leverage to commodity-price movements.

Gold remains the dominant economic driver, accounting for more than 83% of revenue under both price scenarios. Silver makes a more substantial contribution under the August 2026 assumptions, while zinc and lead provide supplementary modelled revenue.

The sensitivity analyses confirm that project valuation is considerably more responsive to gold-price movements than to equivalent percentage changes in operating or capital expenditure.

The heatmaps further demonstrate that NPV remains positive across all tested combinations of individual commodity prices and operating costs. Under the most adverse gold-price/OPEX combinations, NPV remains approximately US$205 million in the original scenario and US$279 million in the updated scenario.

These results provide a potentially encouraging indication of economic performance within the modelled parameters.

The project’s additional Inferred Resources, predominantly open-pit Indicated Resource classification and proximity to the operating Bayan Khundii mine also provide opportunities for further resource evaluation and potential development optimisation.

However, the economic outcomes remain dependent on assumptions that have not yet been demonstrated through a formal project study.

In particular, metallurgical recovery variability associated with arsenic, processing-route selection, by-product payability and the absence of engineered capital and operating cost estimates are important uncertainties.

Further drilling, metallurgical testing, mining studies and engineering work will be required to establish whether the modelled scenarios can be translated into an economically viable mining operation.

Altan Nar illustrates the role of early-stage economic modelling in identifying potential project value, quantifying exposure to key economic drivers and highlighting the technical questions that matter most before a formal PEA is available.

For Stormlands Mining, the case study demonstrates how structured economic modelling can extend the analytical value of a technical Mineral Resource report by producing transparent, comparable scenarios that inform further evaluation.

About Stormlands

Stormlands Mining is an AI-first valuation and analytics platform for mining assets and critical minerals. The platform helps users turn technical disclosures into interactive valuation models in minutes, rather than days or weeks. The valuation models are accessible over multiple platforms to all users, enabling the user to interact directly with the data to facilitate scenario-planning.

The platform enables users to build discounted cash flow models at scale, test commodity price, capex, opex, tax, royalty rates, discount-rates and production scenarios, and compare opportunities and scenarios.

Stormlands is using this technology to build the Stormlands Library: a global repository of mining asset valuation models. It has moved beyond a tool for analysts building individual models and is developing a data layer for the mining industry: a structured source of valuation models and illustrative scenarios. This creates a new way for investors, corporates, professional advisers, financial-market users and public-policy stakeholders to screen assets, benchmark projects and understand the key drivers of mining asset economics.

If you are interested in accessing the models in the library, email ceo@stormlandsmining.com

Important Notice

This analysis has been prepared by Stormlands Mining using publicly available information from the NI 43-101 Technical Report together with Stormlands’ own independent modelling assumptions.

The analysis is illustrative only. It is not a Preliminary Economic Assessment, Pre-Feasibility Study, Feasibility Study, Mineral Reserve estimate or independent technical report. It has not been prepared on behalf of the project owner and has not been reviewed or approved by the project owner.

The model outputs are Stormlands-generated illustrative estimates only. They should not be interpreted as demonstrated economic viability. Future technical work, including mine planning, metallurgical testing, engineering, environmental studies, permitting, capital-cost estimation and operating-cost estimation, would be required before any formal economic conclusions could be drawn.